This week I caught an interview with Nate Silver, an American statistician and writer. He was discussing how he calculates the odds for teams to win the NCAA tournament using power ratings and formulas to make his bracket and determine the overall winner. Silver's accuracy in predicting elections has become well known, in particular in the 2012 presidential elections, Silver accurately forecasted the outcomes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and now he is bringing his skills to the bracket. His methodology is quite complicated and there are many factors to the predications and coming up with the odds, yet Silver seems to have a pretty good track record. Silver forecasts Louisville as the nominal favorite this season with a 23.8% chance to win the championship. He has Indiana checking in at second with a 18.4% chance and Florida following behind with a 13.2% chance.
I've always been interested in how people manage to pick their brackets, whether they choose their home team to win, or maybe the team with the better ranking or color (purple, blue, green?) there always seems to be some reasoning behind each person's bracket.
Then after reading a story about President Obama's pick for Indiana to win the NCAA title, I am even more intrigued by this season's brackets and what Americans across the country are predicting for the 2013 outcome. President Obama seems to be pretty close in terms of accuracy when following along with Silver's odds.
I know for sure I'll definitely be working on my bracket tonight and watching the tournament closely to see who comes out on top.
What do you think?
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